Indus Waters Treaty tensions are rising as India is thinking of significantly increasing its consumption of water from the Indus river system, which may significantly cut Pakistan’s water supplies. This development coincides with increased tensions after Pakistan-backed terrorists carried out a fatal terror assault in Pahalgam, Jammu & Kashmir, on April 22.
The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a historic water-sharing pact between the two nations that has traditionally governed the usage of the Indus river and its tributaries, was suspended by India shortly after the attack.
According to a Reuters story, India’s water projects are proceeding and the Indus Waters Treaty is still suspended despite the ceasefire deal that was struck during fierce fighting in early May.
Although major infrastructure projects take years to finish, experts point out that the first effects on water flow and the political message are already noteworthy. Water has the potential to become a new flashpoint in the already strained relationship between India and Pakistan, therefore the situation is still unstable.
Indus Waters Treaty Suspension Sparks Regional Water Tensions
India and Pakistan share the waters of six rivers under the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, which was mediated by the World Bank.
India is in charge of the Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi rivers in the east, while Pakistan is in charge of the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum rivers in the west. The deal permits India to use the western rivers for hydroelectric and irrigation projects, but it must not adversely impact Pakistan’s water supply.
Citing Pakistan’s role in cross-border terrorism, India terminated its allegiance to the pact after the April 22 terror assault in Pahalgam, which claimed the lives of 26 people.
S. Jaishankar, the minister of external affairs, has stated unequivocally that the pact will be “in abeyance” until Pakistan decisively and convincingly puts an end to cross-border terrorism. Additionally, he emphasized that India opposes wider discussions on Kashmir or the treaty itself for the time being and is only prepared to work with Pakistan on matters pertaining to terrorism and the repatriation of unlawfully held areas in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).
What India is planning
India is intensifying its attempts to boost its water extraction from the Indus river system in a calculated move. It is concentrating on the Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus rivers, which are mostly allotted to Pakistan under the terms of the treaty.
The enlargement of the Chenab River’s Ranbir Canal is one of the most significant projects being considered.
This canal, which was first constructed in the 1800s and is presently 60 kilometers long, will eventually be extended to 120 kilometers.
By increasing its capacity to divert water from 40 cubic meters per second to 150 cubic meters per second, India would be able to drastically reduce the amount of water that enters Pakistan’s Punjab province, a vital agricultural area.
India is also looking into additional hydroelectric and irrigation projects that would further limit the amount of water available downstream. In order to further restrict water flow into Pakistan, government documents obtained by Reuters suggest plans to perhaps reroute water from the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers toward rivers in northern Indian states.
These initiatives include building dams that can store a lot of water, which India hasn’t done on the western rivers before due to treaty constraints.
Effects on Pakistan
About 80 percent of Pakistan’s agricultural output and a large portion of its hydroelectric generation come from the Indus river basin. Any significant decrease in water flow might have detrimental effects on Pakistan’s economy, energy supply, and food security.
As a sign of the strain it may encounter if India moves forward with its plans, Islamabad has already recorded a 90% decrease in water levels at a crucial receiving point after Indian maintenance work on Indus projects.
India’s suspension of the pact has been denounced by Pakistan, which has also issued a warning that any attempt to stop or alter water supplies would be deemed a “act of war.”
Having withstood many wars and continuing hostilities, the Indus Waters Treaty has long been considered one of the most effective water-sharing arrangements in the world.
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